New York Baseball Hack

Over the past couple of days, I have talked with some Mets people and some people outside the organization familiar with their thinking, and here are some of the notes I've come up with:

-With the signing of Freddy Garcia, the Mets are taking their cue from the Red Sox and the way they've approached their off-season. Boston signed Brad Penny and John Smoltz to low-base, incentive-type deals because they're injury risks that could, if healthy, be spectacularly helpful. This is why the Mets haven't totally ruled out a Pedro Martinez return -- thinking that a rotation of Santana/Maine/Pelfrey plus two-of-three from the Garcia/Martinez/Redding group (depending upon who's healthy) isn't a terrible fallback if they can't get another big-name guy.

-However, they are still pursuing another big-game guy, and right now there's a lot of discussion about whether that guy should be Ben Sheets. Omar Minaya and other high-ranking officials are thought to prefer Oliver Perez, but there are people in the organization who think their money would be better spent on Sheets, since he's a real No. 1-caliber pitcher when healthy and Perez is, at best, a No. 2 or 3 (with the walk rate of a No. 5). The thinking is that, with Garcia and Redding in the fold and Jonathon Niese at Triple-A, the Mets could "baby" Sheets -- be ultra-protective of his arm, get him extra rest when possible and make sure they have him healthy for September and (hopefully) October. The pro-Sheets voices in the organization fantasize about a Santana/Sheets combo that would potentially be the best 1-2 rotation punch in the National League.

-One issue, of course, is what kind of contract Sheets wants. Back in December, the Yankees were kicking around the idea of a two-year, $26 million guarantee with two option years that would vest if he stayed healthy during the guarantee portion of the contract. Time having passed and the market having slowed to a halt, Sheets probably wouldn't require $13 million per year to sign now. But the Mets are reluctant so far to offer two years, given Sheets' injury history. Perhaps the Texas Rangers' apparent interest could spur them to offer more, though it might also spur them to up their offer to Perez, if that's the guy they decide they prefer.

-The other issue, according to one person who's been in contact with the Mets' front office, is the fear that Sheets wouldn't be the only pitcher the Mets would have to "baby." There's a feeling in the organization that John Maine's shoulder problems, coming as they did after the departure of former pitching coach Rick Peterson, were no coincidence. Peterson had a program that sought out extra days of rest for Maine when the schedule permitted (off-days, rainouts, All-Star break, etc.) because he feared Maine's delivery made him a breakdown candidate if he pitched every fifth day for months at a time. Maine did break down in the second half last year, and some wonder if they'll have to build in extra rest for him in 2009 to make sure he's healthy. There is a companion concern about Mike Pelfrey, who pitched more innings in 2008 than he ever did before, though that concern is based more on theory, since Pelfrey did not have Maine's injury issues last year.

You get the picture. If the rotation is Santana/Maine/Pelfrey/Sheets/Garcia, that's three guys with injury/health concerns that would have to get extra rest whenever possible. Perez, whatever else he is, is durable and wouldn't need to be "babied." Putting together a rotation with so many guys who have had arm problems could create a logistical and managerial nightmare.

But one thing that's come through consistently in the conversations I've had about the Mets is that they're in no rush. They love Garcia. They think Redding is going to be very useful. They think Niese is ready to help at the major-league level. Basically, they feel they have options at the back end of the rotation and that there's still enough starting pitching on the market (we haven't even mentioned Jon Garland and Randy Wolf here) that they'll be able to add one more guy to the front and/or middle. Spring training may only be three weeks away, but that timetable isn't pushing the Mets to panic into a move they don't want to make.